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April 2008
167 Pages
Now in its sixth year of publication, The Battle for the North American Couch Potato: Bundling, Internet, TV, Telephone (April 2008, 167 pages) contains detailed analysis of strategy, prices, products, and technology by Company and Market. Sources include approximately 100 interviews, quarterly, annual reports & presentations, CRTC, FCC.
US Commentary (Canadian Commentary follows below), see Table of Contents for more of what is included in this Report:
Note: YE is year-end. We forecast Cable will have 19% of residential telephone subscribers by YE2008 (from 14% YE2007) & 29% YE2010. Whereas we forecast RBOCs/Telcos will have 4% of TV subs YE2008 (from 2% YE2007), & 9% YE2010. 2007 RBOC residential wireline telephone, not including wholesale, line loss 2007 was 8%, we forecast 8% for 2008 as well.
Cable continues to add a significant amount of telephone subs due to high customer overlap, bundled price & convenience.
The top Cablecos have on average 58% of their residential TV customers taking Internet with them, whereas the RBOCs have on average 33% of their residential telephone customers taking DSL/fiber Internet access with them.
Cable and Satellite have started to see impact from AT&T & Verizon's TV offers. We forecast in 2010 Satellite will have the same TV market share in as 2007. Cable lost 1% of its TV base in 2007 (2006 saw a slight cable gain), and we forecast Cable will continue to lose 1%/annum through 2010. We forecast overall TV subscriber revenue will grow 8% in 2008 (9% in 2007).
DVR and HD penetration of TV subs reached 25% & 20% respectively YE2007; we forecast 48% & 53% YE2010. We estimate 2009 VOD revenue at almost double 2007 revenue.
Cable continues to add more residential broadband subs per annum than the RBOC/Telcos, & had 57% market share YE2007. In most cases, Fios being the exception, Cable offers more speed for the price. Overall residential broadband sub additions are in decline- 2007 saw one million less subs added than 2006. We forecast overall residential broadband revenue will grow 17% in 2008 (22% in 2007).
In Canada, (see table of contents for more detail): Note: YE is year-end. By YE2008 we forecast Cable will have 24% of residential telephone subs (up from 19% YE2007), and we forecast 34% YE2010. Whereas we forecast Telcos will have 2% of TV subs YE2008 (2% YE2007 as well) and 4% YE2010. Canadian Telcos residential telephone line loss for 2007 was 7%; we forecast 7% for 2008 as well.
Cable continues to add a significant amount of telephone subs due to high customer overlap, bundled price and convenience.
Cable has on average 60% of their residential TV customers taking Internet with them, whereas Telcos have on average 35% of their residential telephone customers taking DSL Internet access with them.
Cable telephone has also been a key growth driver for Cable Internet and TV sub gains.
Cable added 100,000 TV subs in both 2006 and 2007. With Bell's IPTV plans on ice and Satellite sub gains slowing- we forecast Satellite will have the same TV market share in 2010 as 2007- Cable will continue to add TV subs, albeit less than 2006/2007, through 2010. We forecast overall TV subscriber revenue will grow 8% in 2008 (9% in 2007).
PVR and HD penetration of TV subs reached 9% & 13% respectively YE2007; we forecast 28% & 38% YE2010. We estimate 2010 VOD revenue will be double 2007 revenue.
Cable continues to add significantly more residential broadband subscribers per annum than the Telcos, and had 57% market share YE2007. In general Cable offers more speed for the price than the Telcos. Overall residential broadband subscriber additions are in decline; 2007 saw 100,000 less residential broadband subs added than 2006. We forecast overall residential broadband revenue will grow 14% in 2008 (16% in 2007).
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